Opinion: President Obama Must Find Diplomacy Skills
Updated: 3:58pm UK, Thursday 27 December 2012
By David Buik, Cantor Index
President Obama and his charming wife Michelle recently posed for Christmas holiday photographs in Hawaii – all chilled out, very avant-garde in their dress and without appearing to have care in the world.
Clearly his advisers were not in concert with his thinking and summoned him back to Washington in response to an uncomfortable poll, where 47% were of the opinion that a solution will not be found before 1st January 2013 to avoid the 'fiscal cliff!'
I do not subscribe to that intense feeling of uncertainty. However this impasse with the Republican majority in Congress cannot prevail without serious consequences!
Falling off the Fiscal Cliff would mean that $600bn of tax increases would be immediately implemented affecting many from the US middle-class to the tune of $2,000 per annum plus expenditure cuts totalling $100bn, including austerity measures on an already stressed defence budget.
Measures of such magnitude could send the US economy into recession. Many feel that this frustrating level of prevarication or if you prefer political brinkmanship could take 0.5% off GDP in 2013.
There has always been some degree of posturing by Congress when the opposition holds the majority of votes. However this time around there appears to be an excess of 'bad blood' between the warring parties. Democrat House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, senior majority leader in the Senate, would hardly qualify as candidates for a first class honours degree in diplomacy, always pouring oil on the flames of discontent on any negotiations which are not in line with their thinking.
John Boehner, the GOP's majority leader has not exactly excelled himself either in terms of presentation. He preens himself like a peacock, without a hair out of place, when updating the media on the disappointing progress of the negotiations, thus irritating the Democrats for the perceived intransigence of the Republicans.
For the market place easily the most disappointing performance of all from these budget negotiations has come from the President himself. Despite the fact that he has a larger majority than he gained at the Presidential election in 2008, he still has no majority in Congress. That's a fact of life and unless the constitution is changed, and frankly 'hell has a better chance of freezing over,' an agreement has to be found within the framework of Congress – like it or not.
Let's not mince words. There is an air of arrogant confidence about President Barack Obama's demeanour. Unfortunately he has a lousy relationship with the Republicans in Congress, which is almost understandable; but what is unforgivable is the perception that his relationship with the Democrats in Congress is one of aloofness, irritation and indifference.
He may well protest at that allegation – no matter! As Commander-in-Chief it is the President's job to cajole and steer the acceptance of the US government's legislation and policies through Congress.
President Obama has a very strong case that those earning over $250,000 a year should shoulder more of the tax burden. However what is terrifying to the market place is what seems to be the threat of abrogation of responsibility in dealing with the unacceptable and gargantuan levels of debt.
Objective people accept that in 2008 President Obama took an economic 'hospital-pass' from President George W Bush, which sent the economy in to recession. Of that there is no doubt. TARP was a successful ruse! Treasury Secretary Geithner and FED Chairman Bernanke's next little trick, which fell out of 'Pandora's Box' was quantitative easing!
It was a decent temporary solution and it bought time and restored confidence. However there are only 4 aces in a pack of cards. Geithner and Bernanke may think there are six. Zero interest rates can only last so long. Eventually someone has to pick up the tab! Since 2008 the deficit has risen from $9tn to $16t. This is unacceptable.
In my humble opinion debt is the greatest threat to democracy! The US government cannot rely on China to keep buying Treasuries with an insatiable appetite, regardless of liquidity, if the US government does not attend to its responsibilities.
Governments, banks and Consumers are all-over borrowed. De-leveraging must be implemented.
If the market and China in particular decides that the debt burden is too great and consequently withdrew their automatic support with yields from 0.25% to 2% rising meteorically, that would send the cost of servicing debt in to orbit. The worst case scenario would be recession, massive unemployment and civil unrest!
President Obama, please avoid possible turmoil and 'go bang a few heads' together diplomatically!
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